Modelling land use changes according to transportation scenarios using raster based GIS indicators

The modelling of land use change is a way to analyse future scenarios by modelling different future pathways. This study demonstrates the potential to explore and test the understanding of land use change relations by applying spatial data of different scales, coupled with socio-economic data. In the EU-FP7 research project PASHMINA (Paradigm Shift modelling and innovative approaches), three storylines of future transportation paradigm shifts towards 2050 are created. These storylines are translated into spatial planning strategies and their implication on land use changes were modelled via the cellular automata model LUCIA. An Eastern Danish case area was selected, comprising the Copenhagen metropolitan area and its hinterland. The different scenarios are described using a range of different GIS datasets. These include mapping of accessibility based on public and private transportation, urban density and structure, and distribution of jobs and population. These indicators are then incorporated in the model calculations as factors determining urban development and localization of urban sprawl, reflecting the scenario outlines. The results calculated from the scenarios reveal the great difference in urban distribution that different spatial planning strategies may initiate, and thus change the shape of the urban landscape. The scenarios outline different planning strategies, leading to a more homogenous urban structure, targeted at a reduction of transportation work and thus energy consumption. This will lead to less impact on climate from transportation based on a more optimal localization and transport infrastructure strategy.